The events of this week may well tell us just how many balls President Donald Trump can actually keep in the air at one time. 

The U.S. military continues to make progress on its mission to put Iran out of the nuclear threat business in what may be the signature decision of his presidency. Meanwhile, despite a series of domestic terror attacks over the past two weeks and what seems to be an endless winter of severe storms, Democrats continue to refuse to fund the Department of Homeland Security or allow an up-or-down vote on the SAVE America Act. 

For Trump and Republicans, however, the biggest challenge remains the economic speed bumps that continue to plague the administration’s efforts to fix the failed Biden economy. 

Even before the mission in Iran began, the country’s economic picture had become more difficult to assess. What had been an improving economy now is more uncertain, and recent economic reports do not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict. 

But here is what we know so far in three key areas: 

The administration has made meaningful progress in closing the gap between prices and wages, but more work is needed for people to feel they are getting ahead. 

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics reports show the margin of prices over wages (using January 2021, President Joe Biden’s inaugural month, as the base month) increasing slightly, going from 2.6 percentage points in January to 2.7 points in February. 

However, the monthly wage/price data has shown some structural improvement starting last November, when prices went from outpacing wages by 4.4 percentage points down to 2.8 points, which has been sustained now for several months. Consistency in this case is good news for workers.

In the last month of Biden’s term, prices had outpaced wages by 4.8 percentage points from the month when he was inaugurated. The drop in that margin to 3 points or below, as we see now, is a positive development, but voters are still looking for more improvement. 

This is why so many surveys still reflect people’s negative attitude toward the economy. When Trump says he was handed an economic mess, the electorate agrees — but the administration’s progress simply hasn’t met people’s expectations.

While the Trump administration’s energy policies have been lowering gas prices, the conflict in Iran, not unexpectedly, has pushed the current national average today to 62 cents higher than at the start of Trump’s term in January 2025. 

According to the Energy Information Administration, when Biden came into office, the national average for gas prices was $2.46. It peaked at $5.11 in the middle of June 2022. When Biden left office and Trump’s term began, the national average was $3.23.

From the end of December 2025 through the first week of February 2026, prices dipped slightly below $3 for the first time since 2021, measurable progress. Prior to the start of Operation Epic Fury at the end of February, the national average was $3.07. The most recent weekly average hit $3.85. 

While most oil experts are saying they expect gas prices to return to lower levels once the Iranian conflict ends, the immediate impact will likely negatively affect inflation numbers. It’s important that Trump and Republicans articulate that short-term pain at the pump is the price of protecting the homeland from Iran’s nuclear threat. 

It may be a painful bargain in the short run but an existential bargain worth making for the country. 

The newest economic development facing the White House is the slowdown in job creation that cannot be ignored. In the most recent employment report, BLS’ preliminary results showed that 92,000 jobs were lost in February. Looking at employment over the past nine months (June 2025 to February 2026), 32,000 jobs have been lost. 

In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, the job losses were at 116,000. This jobs trend now seems to align with the current fourth-quarter 2025 second GDP report of 0.7 percent growth, after a robust third-quarter GDP of 4.4 percent. In the third quarter, 70,000 jobs were created.

But the January jobs number was much more optimistic at 126,000. This would represent over 60 percent of the jobs created since January 2025. What’s behind these roller coaster jobs numbers?

Many economists have focused on the impact of AI as a cause for this reduction, claiming that AI has increased productivity of existing employees so successfully that businesses don’t have a need to hire new employees. 

Productivity can be a double-edged sword. For some context, from January 1981 through February 2020 (the month before the beginning impact of the COVID-19 shutdown), U.S. employers created an average number of 130,532 jobs a month. 

Weather this past February may turn out to be a factor, along with AI. Only more data on the underlying causes of the slowdown in employment will tell us whether this is a trend or momentary pause in hiring.

There is also a positive side to the job front: The unemployment rate remains at a manageable level. Contrast the current 4.4 percent to the 30 months of 9 percent or higher unemployment from spring 2009 through the fall of 2011. Moreover, working Americans have seen their weekly wages increase 4.7 percent since January 2025. But the obvious question that remains is which number best reflects the direction of job creation, the January or February job results?

While the legislative focus has been on trying to positively impact inflation, the question now becomes how to keep the cost of living moving in a positive direction and also address potential job creation uncertainties. As we have seen in past presidencies, dealing with either inflation (Biden) or jobs (Obama) is tough enough, but dealing with both is exponentially more challenging. 

Hopefully, the economic elements of the GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill” and the administration’s reduction in regulations will provide a more favorable environment in the coming months for the private sector to create jobs and increase wages. 

But for the White House and Republicans, more policies and legislation to strengthen the private sector — and in turn, workers — needs to be the top priority. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.

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