JPMorgan just put a 10% price tag on the Iran war

JPMorgan’s shifting tone suggests that Wall Street may be too relaxed about a war that’s quickly becoming an oil and inflation problem

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Wall Street has spent the past week treating the Iran war like a nasty headline cycle: alarming and expensive — but maybe still survivable with enough denial and a functioning commodities desk. JPMorgan $JPM Chase, though, just gave that anxiety a number.

Bloomberg reported Monday that Andrew Tyler, the bank’s head of global market intelligence, has turned “tactically bearish” and warned that U.S. stocks aren’t prepared for a full correction as the war in Iran drags on and oil hits above $100 a barrel. To Tyler, that means the S&P 500 is at risk of falling about 10% from its peak to roughly 6,270, even as his position stayed predominantly neutral with no extreme de-risking.

The market, so far, has looked almost suspiciously relaxed — minus a few blips and dips. Even Goldman Sachs $GS CEO David Solomon has been surprised by Wall Street’s “benign” reaction to the conflict. So why the........

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