Sometimes, Hollywood is the last to get the memo—especially when it comes to teenagers. Executives think they know what teens want, often based on their own adolescent memories or on their kids, who usually don’t reflect the wide diversity of today’s youth. And, too often, they tend to cherry-pick examples that confirm what they already believe (what psychologists call confirmation bias).

As a former movie exec, I understand the instinct. The gut plays a big role in choosing what stories to tell. But as a developmental psychologist who studies adolescents and media, and as someone with a business background, I know you also have to look at the data and think about the opportunity cost.

That’s where I see a disconnect in today’s crop of teen-focused shows: Emily in Paris, Outer Banks, or The Summer I Turned Pretty. They’re wildly popular. They’re topping charts. They’re being called smash hits. But are they really........

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