AI hype might be overblown.

New developments in AI are just one more wave in human-technology co-evolution.

We've been at similar junctures before with Y2K and nanotechnology.

Have you ever had the experience of wading in the ocean and seeing a huge, incoming wave that makes you want to run for the shore? You generally have two options: make a break for it or duck dive under the wave to avoid the worst of its turbulence.

But sometimes, something unexpected happens: That huge wave dies down to almost nothing by the time it reaches you. Could something like this happen with AI?

Is AI a tsunami or just another wave?

We've all been hearing the dire predictions for a couple of years now: AI will replace humans in several industries like customer service, finance, law, and marketing, as well as in real estate and sales in general. Students and industry professionals alike won't need to know how to write or even think, since GPTs will happily do it for them.

If most of us are replaced by AI and no longer need to work, what will we do? Will be assured a universal basic income so we can survive?

The incessant AI predictions are frightening and incite panic like an ongoing tornado siren from the edge of town. The idea that humans willingly replaced themselves with their technology might give future generations pause. Or maybe not---if those future generations are AI.

So, what do we do? Can we run away from AI or duck dive under it?

Some people are indeed doing so, but burying our heads in the sand doesn't seem like a promising move. If you genuinely live an off-grid life, you might be okay duck diving the AI wave. But for educators, academics, and many industry professionals, it's almost a given that we need to try to understand how new technologies are impacting human flourishing.

AI, at least in some form, is part of our inevitable human-technology co-evolution. It's been coming for a long, long time. The history of computers and information science bears this out, as does almost every sci-fi novel ever written.

History repeats itself

In the late 1990s, we were terrified of Y2K (when clocks and computer-driven systems would click from 1999 to 2000) and thought the world might end. It didn't. In the early 2000s, we were terrified of nanotechnology and worried about the "grey goo" scenario wherein nanobots over-replicated and overtook the earth. The scenario didn't come to pass, and we don't even hear that much about nanotechnology anymore (though I'm enthusiastic about the developments in cancer research towards deploying injected nanobots on search-and-destroy missions).

I think we're in a similar mindset now, fearing that AI will take over the world and make humanity obsolete, or at least unnecessary. But there are a few good reasons to question the assumption.

1) People are becoming disenchanted with generative AI systems like ChatGPT. Its obsequious nature is commonly joked about. Many have argued that AI models are actually getting dumber rather than smarter as designers try to make them safer and more concise. Computer science students report that GPT-produced code is buggy and their performance on challenging math problems is less than impressive. I'll admit that ChatGPT is pretty good at writing, but it's still not human writing.

2) We're not even sure for how long systems like ChatGPT are sustainable. They're a tremendous drain on natural resources like power and water, and the word on the street is that Open AI is billions in the hole from funding its startup that's already getting old in the public eye.

3) There seems to be a growing social trend toward simpler, lower-tech and less tech in which people prefer books to ebooks, flip phones to smartphones, and real conversations to social media drivel. We've all been made painfully aware of the addictive nature of our gadgets and Big Tech's insidious rendering of the gadgets into conduits for sucking our time, attention, equanimity, good will, and even purpose.

There's a vast continuum between AI-enhanced humanity and AI replacing humanity. The wave isn't looming over us, it's already here, and we're so far managing to keep our heads above water.

© Psychology Today