A few weeks ago, I found myself coughing and shivering under a blanket as the latest fall virus settled in for an extended stay. Unable to do much else, I turned on the TV and started looking for a movie to watch. But everything the streaming services suggested just felt … off. I recognized myself and my interests reflected back at me in the suggestions: a documentary about the financial system; a movie about food; a show about travel in East Asia. But none of it clicked.

Then, suddenly, I knew what I wanted to watch: a movie I’d seen with my wife and son 15 years ago. Undemanding, funny, brimming with cozy associations. It was the cinematic equivalent of chicken soup. Almost any other day, I wouldn’t have been interested. But just then, it was exactly what I needed.

The data the streaming services have on my viewing habits is more than impressive. It is clean and complete. It captures almost everything I have watched over the last decade, with the exception of a couple of hours of viewing on flights or in hotel rooms. Normally, the algorithm serves up a menu of options that includes something that will satisfy me. And that’s the thing about algorithms: They are tuned to normality. They make predictions based on statistical likelihoods, past behavior, and expectations about the continuation of trends.

I don’t get ill very often. Faced with an outlier like that, the algorithm was useless. And that was an important reminder. I spend a lot of my time enabling organizations to make data-driven decisions. But sometimes, the past can’t steer you. Sometimes, probability is just a roll of the dice. Sometimes, you have to go with your gut.

Making decisions based on what feels right or on what your gut is telling you can be a........

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