Washington’s demands in 2026 are no longer relevant to the officials in the Berlaymont in Brussels and the leaders of powerful countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. All of them are rather trying to navigate in the anarchic world where US power is declining rapidly. The center of geopolitical concern has moved from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Indo-Pacific region. Currently, we are at the turning point for a transition in the world order and are in the era of anarchy.

Human history has always witnessed a similar motif of balance of power for centuries. Empires climb to the pinnacle of power and glory, relish in their golden age, and eventually decline. They perpetuate tales of past glory to later generations. The decline of a hegemonic empire leads to a period of anarchy in the world order because such empires are the ones holding the world order, and when they weaken, the order dies with them. Emerging powers fill this vacuum and then start repeating the same process of “rise and fall” like their predecessors.

This realization has not been new. Ibn Khaldun, in his book Muqaddimah, discussed the existence of such phenomena and introduced the concept of Asabiyyah, also called “group solidarity” or “social cohesion.” He pointed out that groups that possess strong Asabiyyah will rise by dominating their rivals, whose Asabiyyah has weakened over time. Trump has been the catalyst that caused a loss of Asabiyyah in the US due to reasons such as the crackdown on illegal immigration, MAGA hate campaigns, and the dismantling of DEI initiatives.

Conversely, China is currently a rising power that has maintained its social cohesion, even if it is through authoritarian rule and massive surveillance mechanisms. Many reports have indicated a very high trust rate that Chinese citizens put in their institutions compared to many Western countries, which is also a result of the difference between Eastern and Western cultures and values. The West cherishes individual liberty, while the East tends to be more collectivist, with control, order, and stability, and strong social ties playing a major role in people’s lives.

Many scholars have also alluded to this phenomenon at one point or another, exploring “how” empires rise and “why” they fall. One amongst them, Sir John Glubb, has provided analysis on Assyria, Persia, Greece, the Roman Republic, the Roman Empire, the Arab Empire, the Mamluk Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, Romanov Russia, and the British Empire in his work “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival.” Through analysis of all those empires, Glubb proposed an estimated 250-year cycle for their rise and fall. He divides the life of these empires into seven ages: the age of outburst, the age of conquest, the age of commerce, the age of affluence, the age of intellect, the age of decadence, and finally, the age of decline. The rise of American imperialism has been no exception and is now in its “age of decadence.”

Curiously, America is about to hit the 250th anniversary of its birth this year on July 4th, 2026, which seems to indicate that, indeed, the lifespan of a superpower is about to reach its end. In this article, I will attempt to explain the relative decline of the American-led world order, the foundations of its collapse, and its linkage to Donald Trump’s second term in office.

American Imperial Decline

The world was bipolar, divided between two great powers, the USA and the USSR, during the Cold War. It had since shifted to the unipolar order of the American-led liberal world order in the 1990s. The decline of American dominance began as early as the beginning of the 21st century, as most scholars agree. American invasions into Afghanistan and Iraq led to resentment in those populations and reduced both America’s political leverage and its financial resources, while the 2008 global financial crisis served to further solidify speculations about its weakening economic structure.

A pivotal point occurred in 2013 when President Xi Jinping came to power, unveiling China’s grand scheme of the Belt and Road Initiative, which greatly hastened the rise of a multipolar world and America’s loss of economic supremacy. In the same year, President Obama was unable to convince his allies to join an invasion of Syria despite his tough “red lines” proclamation. Eventually, a deal facilitated by Russia did manage to bring some practical results that highlighted America’s inability to impose a unipolar will unilaterally.

From 2013 onwards, both China and Russia have consolidated their power and formed a “No Limits Partnership” to challenge the United States on a global scale. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, escalated conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk by backing separatist groups, and eventually invaded Ukraine in 2022. In contrast to America’s policy of invasions after WWII, China focused its entire efforts on gaining dominance in economic terms and raising its........

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