It seems churlish to carp about President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza when its announcement and early steps have caused such widespread relief. Trump himself, always eager for quick and dramatic successes abroad, has encouraged the euphoria in some circles by declaring in the Israeli Knesset the “dawn of a new Middle East”, rather than expressing the caution appropriate when announcing progress towards resolving perhaps the world’s most intractable conflict. But there are even more grounds for skepticism that this will be the peace plan to succeed when so many others have foundered – grounds rooted in simply it being his plan.

To be sure, significant steps towards winding down the conflict have been taken. Hamas has released all the surviving Israeli hostages, giving up its last source of leverage upon Israel. The IDF has also withdrawn from Gaza’s population centres, which could not be reversed without incurring renewed international criticism and Trump’s displeasure, given his public promise to prevent it. Trump’s plan further offers something to all the relevant regional actors.

For war-weary Israelis, it means an end to the immediate fighting and the return of the surviving hostages. For Prime Minister Netanyahu, who faces an election soon, the ability to claim military victory over Israel’s major enemies (Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah), a demilitarized Gaza in whose governance Hamas has no role, and the return of the hostages, for whose fate his apparent unconcern has exacerbated his deep unpopularity. For the Palestinians, an end to the suffering in Gaza, humanitarian aid, large-scale reconstruction, and an increased prospect of eventual statehood. For Hamas, an exit, via amnesty or exile, from a conflict which has weakened its military potential, its standing in the Arab world, and the network of tangible support based upon Iran and to which the Assad regime in Syria was central. For most of the Arab world, it’s an end to Hamas’ disruptive role in the region.

But........

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