The day after Donald Trump was elected as the President of the United States, the euro fell by 3%, reflecting immediate anxiety among America’s European allies. Trump’s previous stint as POTUS had already strained transatlantic ties, and his return sparked fears of deeper divisions. With a war in Eastern Europe supported by the biggest economy across six out of seven continents under the control of an authoritarian leader, the geopolitical stakes have intensified.

That is why India’s position as a democratic counterweight to China has never been more crucial for European policymakers. As the Modi government and EU officials accelerate negotiations for a €135-billion free trade agreement while navigating mounting American pressures and geopolitical realignments, New Delhi’s approach is proving exceptionally prescient.

The acceleration of these negotiations reflects what Metternich might have recognised as a fundamental realignment of the European balance, wherein India’s democratic credentials and economic dynamism offer the continent a strategic alternative to the Faustian bargains of authoritarian dependency.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s unprecedented visit to New Delhi with commissioners from 21 countries in February 2025 was a sign. It was the bloc’s recognition of India as an indispensable strategic partner. The high-level diplomatic engagement occurred precisely as Trump’s return to the White House introduced fresh uncertainties regarding transatlantic relations and global trade stability.

India’s appeal to European policymakers extends beyond traditional economic metrics. As a vibrant democracy with robust institutions and a commitment to a rules-based international order, India offers the EU a reliable partner that shares fundamental values while maintaining strategic autonomy. It is in contrast with China’s authoritarian trajectory and coercive economic practices.

The geopolitical context has altered the calculus surrounding the India-EU relationship. While China’s tacit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its assertiveness in the South China Sea, and human rights violations have crystallized European perceptions of Beijing as a ‘systemic rival’, it is crucial to acknowledge the complexity of EU-China relations.

Despite these tensions, Europe remains economically interdependent with China, given the........

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