India’s careful restoration of diplomatic ties with China is a masterclass in strategic calibration, though the sustainability of this rapprochement faces formidable challenges. By resuming people-to-people exchanges while maintaining robust military deployments along the Line of Actual Control, New Delhi demonstrates a nuanced approach to managing great-power competition without sacrificing national security interests.

This calibrated normalisation, anchored in military-to-military contacts, visa liberalisation, and preparations for renewed special representatives’ talks, offers a template for navigating complex bilateral relations in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions. The durability of this diplomatic thaw, however, confronts a fundamental question: can goodwill survive China’s continued belligerent actions and the shifting dynamics introduced by Trump’s economic nationalism?

The mechanics of India-China normalisation since October 2024 reveal a diplomatic strategy designed to compartmentalise cooperation from competition. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s landmark visit to China in July, the first since the deadly Galwan clash, established critical parameters for engagement.

Meeting President Xi Jinping alongside fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) foreign ministers, Jaishankar stressed that both nations had made good progress in stabilising relations over the preceding nine months. This progress manifested in tangible measures.

India’s resumption of tourist visas for Chinese nationals on July 24 marked the first such initiative in five years, signalling a commitment to rebuilding connections severed by the 2020 border crisis. The announcement, made through the Indian embassy’s WeChat account, was strategically timed to coincide with the 34th Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination meeting, where both sides expressed satisfaction with the general prevalence of peace and tranquility in the border areas.

Agreements on resuming direct flights, sharing hydrological data on trans-border rivers, and facilitating the ‘Kailash Mansarovar Yatra’ reflect India’s willingness to engage on non-sensitive issues while maintaining red lines on core security concerns.

The introduction of Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Indian goods has paradoxically accelerated India-China normalisation by creating a common challenge to both nations’ economic interests. Announced on July 30, these punitive measures specifically target India’s energy and defence cooperation with Russia, while threatening additional penalties that could raise effective tariff rates to 35 percent.

Trump’s aggressive trade posture, described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as reflecting frustration with India’s “slow-rolling" negotiations, has fundamentally altered the strategic calculus in New........

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