In recent weeks, questions have swirled: Is the India-US trade deal still on? Will India get a tariff letter too? The answers lie in Trump’s tariff playbook — his tariff psychology and domestic political motivations, and the good news is, India seems to have cracked it, staying clear-eyed and unshaken.

The much-anticipated trade deal between India and the United States is yet to be finalised. Initially, it was believed that the agreement would be announced a day before July 9 — marking 90 days since US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on April 2. That was when the tariffs were originally scheduled to come into effect.

However, no announcement was made. Instead, President Trump extended the tariff deadline to August 1. In the weeks that followed, Trump issued a series of “tariff letters" to countries including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Bangladesh — but notably, not to India. This omission signalled that negotiations with India remained on track.

Talks have since continued, with an Indian delegation visiting the United States for the second time this month. A deal is now expected by July 31, a day before the revised deadline. But uncertainty remains.

Key sticking points have emerged during the talks. India has shown resistance in sectors like automobiles and pharmaceuticals. In areas such as agriculture and dairy, India has taken a firm stance. The country has never opened up its dairy sector to foreign nations and is unlikely to make an exception for the United States. Another critical issue is genetically modified foods; India’s GMO-free reputation provides it with an export advantage, especially in European markets. While Trump wants the deal to benefit American farmers, India has domestic agricultural interests of its own to safeguard.

According to sources, India has already made its best possible offer to the US, and the ball is now in Trump’s........

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