PM Modi’s high-level engagements with Russian and Chinese Presidents — Putin in New Delhi, Xi in Beijing and possibly a symbolic RIC meet on the sidelines of the SCO summit – make room for an array of opportunities in a moment of crisis. Even as India navigates Trump’s tariff war, it has legitimate areas to address with respect to Moscow and Beijing. India has a large trade deficit with Russia, driven by oil sales swelling abruptly over the course of the Ukraine war, which New Delhi wants addressed. Meanwhile, the reset with China has entered fertile ground in the current geopolitical circumstances, which raises the chance of good faith outcomes and mutual understandings.

The United States under President Donald Trump has triggered geopolitical shockwaves far beyond the realm of trade and tariffs. One of the worst hit has surprisingly turned out to be India. While Trump’s classic style of deal-making could not breach India’s redlines, a number of geopolitical threats emerged on the table, essentially upending India’s entire calculus around its relationship with the US and its place in the Indo-Pacific.

Trump made a series of provocative missteps, weaponising Pakistan against India, seeking credit where it was not due on Operation Sindoor and trying to mediate on Kashmir. This couldn’t fly with India which made its displeasure known, leading to a conflict of minds right at the very top. The stage was set for a grand fallout. But the trigger came from the trade deal.

Trump had expected big numbers, large unrealistic commitments in terms of investments, defence and energy purchases, credit for the India-Pakistan ceasefire, perhaps a nobel prize nomination, maybe even more. This was when Trump introduced the Russia card seemingly out of nowhere.

Failing to get Russia to agree on a ceasefire in Ukraine for six months, Trump changed tack and decided to go after Russia’s oil customers. The American President steered clear of China, the number one buyer of Russian oil and went for the 2nd best thing — India which he may have found easier to bully. He threw Russian oil into the mix of trade negotiations to build the ultimate leverage, dramatically close to his tariff deadline. Now India faces 50% tariffs from the US, the highest for any country, a stark uncertainty about any future trade........

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