When great powers falter, the end rarely arrives in a single dramatic collapse. More often, decline begins subtly, under the leadership of rulers whose policies, decisions, and personal styles chip away at the very foundations that made their realms dominant.

History is littered with examples – from Rome and the Ottomans to the Mughals and even the British – where the seeds of decay were sown not at the empire’s weakest hour, but at the peak or shortly after, when complacency, overreach, and hubris replaced steady governance. Watching Donald Trump’s second term unfold in Washington, it is difficult to escape the sense that we have entered a similar inflection point for the United States.

The pattern in each decline follows an almost predictable path. Institutions eroded as rulers centralised power and sidelined competent administrators. Corruption and nepotism flourished. Societies fractured under divisive policies. Economies faltered from overextension, fiscal mismanagement, or both. Alliances frayed, rivals grew bolder, and legitimacy – the belief that the system was worth preserving – began to crumble. Once these dynamics took hold, the downward momentum was hard to stop.

Donald Trump’s second term exhibits more than a passing resemblance to all of these historical moments. From the outset in January 2025, Trump has governed with an openly personalist style, casting himself as the singular saviour of America against a litany of “corrupt" or “traitorous" enemies. Independent regulatory agencies have been stripped of autonomy and placed under direct White House supervision, with loyal political officers installed inside.

Career civil servants have been purged in favour of ideological allies, echoing the late Ottoman pattern of replacing seasoned administrators with sycophants. Agencies like the Bureau of Labour Statistics have been gutted, international relationships built over decades dismantled overnight, and thousands of experts left in limbo, the administrative equivalent of tearing down your own city walls. The ‘bending-of-the-knee’ and offering of ‘personalised tribute’ by Tim Cook or the ‘protection money’ by Nvidia are not just jarring sights........

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