In the Iran-Israel conflict, America does not any longer have the gun to Iran’s head. With the airstrikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, it has pulled the trigger.

What is going to be the impact of this in the region and the world? Is peace going to descend on the Middle East, or is the stormy sea of unending turmoil going to get redder and wider?

Let us examine a dropdown of scenarios.

First, the Ayatollah Ali Khameini regime may fall. Israel, and now the US, are not just targeting nuclear, ballistic missile, and military infrastructure. They are going for the symbols of the regime, have assassinated almost the entire military leadership, driven Khameini himself to a secret bunker, and bombed places like the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

Second, the assassination of Khameini is not off the table. Israel has taken out a major chunk of his team, Trump said the US knew where he was hiding, and asked if the US would back a possible Israeli hit, US Vice President JD Vance said, it is “up to the Israelis".

Third, if the Ayatollah regime indeed falls, it does not guarantee peace. In fact, the vacuum could be filled by ideological hardliners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Iranian military. The prospect of an Iraq 2.0 — with ISIS-like actors running amuck — is looming in Iran now, some analysts claim.

In spite of the western agencies’ support for a prominent Opposition figure like US-based Reza Pahlavi — the son of the ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi — he does not enjoy broad popularity inside Iran. A major reason is because Pahlavi wants the restoration of the warm ties which existed between his late father and Israel........

© News18