Just as the beginning of a new year is a time for families to figure out their finances, the same is true for state legislatures. In the coming months, the majority of states will be penning their budgets for the upcoming fiscal year. As they tally costs, legislators will need to account for looming changes to a key federal nutrition program that push more of the financial burden onto their books.

In July, Congress approved a law making a series of dramatic cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which helps roughly 42 million Americans buy groceries. Along with adding new work requirements, the measure will also increase the amount that states spend on both administrative costs and SNAP benefits themselves. This could result in states shifting money from other public programs to fund SNAP—or choosing to limit either SNAP benefit amounts or eligibility overall to keep costs down.

“It’s very likely some states are thinking about whether or not they can keep this, if they can participate in SNAP, so that has huge implications for people experiencing poverty,” said Lelaine Bigelow, director of the Georgetown Law School Center on Poverty and Inequality. “Other programs are probably going to feel pinches, and it’s probably not going to be easy shifts.”

Beginning in October, states will be responsible for 75 percent of administrative costs of SNAP, a dramatic increase from the current 50 percent; the federal government will be responsible for the remaining 25 percent. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that this provision would mean a reduction in federal funding for administrative costs by nearly $25 billion over the next decade.

As early as the fall of 2027, states will also be responsible for a portion of the cost of SNAP benefits, depending on their error rates—that is, the share of overpayments and underpayments of SNAP benefits. If an eligible household either receives too much or not enough in benefits for a given month, those payments are in error.

According to recent research by the Georgetown Law School Center on Poverty and Inequality, these new changes will result in states spending an average of two to three times more on SNAP in their budgets, with a median increase of 202 percent. In 15 states, the share of the state budget will increase by more than 300 percent.

If their error rate is above 6 percent in fiscal year 2025 or 2026, states may begin paying a portion of SNAP costs beginning in fiscal year 2028. If that state’s error rate is above 10 percent, they will be on the hook for 15 percent of benefit costs.

In recent years, state governments have faced struggles ranging from the extraordinary—such as managing benefits during the Covid-19 pandemic—to the quotidian, like shoring up outdated enrollment systems or understaffing issues. Surmounting these challenges may have helped to lower........

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