Higher Grocery Costs Are Creating a Vicious Cycle of Household Debt

As food prices tick up and more Americans turn to credit cards to make ends meet, the indirect effects of the war in Iran could lead to families losing their financial stability.

Higher grocery prices have plagued consumers for years, with President Donald Trump’s war in Iran exacerbating the spike in costs over the past several months. But what began with higher prices at the check-out counter has given rise to another worrisome trend: escalating household debt of the kind that can strain the credit of ordinary families, diminish their long-term financial stability—or leave them more vulnerable to future economic shocks.

Grocery and restaurant prices have ticked up since the coronavirus pandemic, due to exigent factors such as the war in Ukraine, Trump’s tariffs, and now the conflict in Iran. Repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large proportion of the world’s fuel and fertilizer are ferried, have resulted in higher operating costs for farmers, a trend that will indirectly affect grocery prices in the long term. According to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for “food at home”—that is, the cost of groceries—increased by 2.7 percent between May 2025 and May 2026.

Although the price of eggs—a point of contention ahead of the 2024 presidential election—has decreased in the past year, other staples such as ground beef and sandwich bread have gone up. Mark Zandi, the chief economist........

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