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It Sure Looks Like Trump Just Lost a Major Trade Deal

2 2
30.07.2025

The Trump administration just dashed any chance of a new trade deal with India, imposing a 25 percent tariff on the country Wednesday along with a penalty for buying military equipment and energy from Russia.

The world’s most populous nation has held off on offering new concessions to the U.S., announcing on Tuesday that it was prepared to accept tariffs as high as 25 percent on its exports to American consumers.

But with just two days on the clock to finalize the deal, it doesn’t seem that Donald Trump has a firm handle on India’s jaded approach to the negotiations.

“WE HAVE A MASSIVE TRADE DEFICIT WITH INDIA!!!” he exclaimed on Truth Social Wednesday.

The U.S. imports more goods and services from India than it sells. In 2024, the country’s trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion—a 5.4 percent increase over the prior year, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

“Remember, while India is our friend, we have, over the years, done relatively little business with them because their Tariffs are far too high, among the highest in the World, and they have the most strenuous and obnoxious non-monetary Trade Barriers of any Country,” Trump wrote in an earlier post.

“Also, they have always bought a vast majority of their military equipment from Russia, and are Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY, along with China, at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE—ALL THINGS NOT GOOD!” he continued. “INDIA WILL THEREFORE BE PAYING A TARIFF OF 25 PERCENT, PLUS A PENALTY FOR THE ABOVE, STARTING ON AUGUST FIRST. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. MAGA!”

Historically, it takes U.S. officials roughly 18 months to negotiate a new trade agreement with another country. That boils down to exhaustive reviews of the country’s prior trade, sorting through thousands of line items of products, and analyzing the complex minutiae of local import and export laws.

Despite the fact that India was one of the first countries to open up new trade negotiations with the U.S. in February, even Trump administration officials have acknowledged that the deal with India is still half-baked. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC Monday that India has “strong interest in opening portions of its market” to U.S. products but that the talks require more time. Last week, India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal told Reuters that India was making “great progress” with the Trump administration.

But blowing past traditional expectations in favor of baseless projections has not proven to be a strong success strategy for the second Trump administration. Instead, choosing to throw the country into a trading blitz with dozens of its biggest trading partners has effectively forced the U.S. into a regrettable losing position, with American officials constantly having to hedge on what were supposed to be adamant deadlines.

If Trump is to be believed, however, then Friday could be the exception.

“THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE IS THE AUGUST FIRST DEADLINE—IT STANDS STRONG, AND WILL NOT BE EXTENDED,” Trump wrote earlier on Wednesday. “A BIG DAY FOR AMERICA!!!”

India isn’t the only country holding out on U.S. trade negotiations. China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Taiwan, Brazil, Switzerland, and Thailand have also not finalized their arrangements with the Trump administration, though not all of them face the August 1 cutoff.

Continuing its 4Chanified social media strategy, the White House’s official X account on Tuesday put an appalling twist on the “Jet2 holiday” internet trend.

The trend consists of viral posts in which chaotic video footage is accompanied by an upbeat song and cheerful voiceover, taken from an advertisement for British airline Jet2, which begins: “Nothing beats a Jet2 holiday!”

In the White House’s attempt, the lighthearted audio plays over video clips depicting immigrants being loaded onto a plane for deportation. The immigrants are shown being ushered from vans, walking with shackled hands and feet, holding identification documents, and boarding a plane. Their faces are clearly visible on several occasions, while the faces of all law enforcement agents are blurred out.

When ICE books you a one-way Jet2 holiday to deportation. ✈️🎶

Nothing beats it! pic.twitter.com/hlLapr9QsE

It’s the latest example of the White House’s callous digital strategy, which has previously included an ASMR video of shackled immigrants and an AI-generated image of an immigration agent detaining a sobbing woman in the style of Japanese animation studio Studio Ghibli. This social media approach, under Trump staffer Kaelan Dorr, seems guided by a commitment to sharing “banger memes” (in the White House X account’s own eyeroll-inducing words) that are just edgy enough to elicit surprise that they’re actually being posted by the White House.

But such posts, from an increasingly unpopular administration whose immigration agenda faces increasing scrutiny for prioritizing deporting noncriminals, gives one the impression that the Trump White House is guided by sadism rather than a desire to better the country—and cares more about catering to right-wing internet trolls than satisfying the American electorate.

In the replies to the “Jet2” meme, for instance, many right-wingers were relishing the cruelty, while others were put off. “You are not Christians,” wrote one user. Even a self-described supporter of deportation said the meme “is gross” and “feels yuck.”

Others took to counter-trolling, bringing up an inescapable sore subject for the Trump administration: Congressional candidate TJ Adams-Falconer

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