Is Europe preparing for a new war against Russia? Beyond Deterrence, Europe’s Dangerous Drift

Europe was built on the promise of peace. Now, its leaders are steering the continent toward rivalry, arms races, and confrontation, putting its founding values on the line. Is war inevitable?

The Collapse of Strategic Rationality

The debate about Russia no longer centres simply on Ukraine’s defence. Increasingly, on both the left and right, influential European voices—such as Kaja Kallas and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte — frame a direct conflict with Russia as not just possible but inevitable. Talk of a forthcoming war — omnipresent in the mouth of NATO Secretary General — sky-high military spending and budgets, and the narrative of a continent under imminent war have turned what was once ‘deterrence’ into a sweeping, ambitious geopolitical project. The shift is as dramatic as it is troubling.

This raises a fundamental question: is Europe acting according to rational strategic calculations, or has it entered a dangerous realm where ideological convictions, Russophobia, increasingly override geopolitical realities?

Classical game theory in international relations assumes that major actors behave rationally, seeking to maximise security while minimising risks. Yet the security dilemma emerges when defensive actions by one side are interpreted as offensive preparations by the other. Europe claims that its rearmament is defensive and readiness for war; Russia interprets it as preparation for future confrontation. The result is a self-reinforcing cycle of escalation rather than diplomacy.

The greatest danger is not that leaders deliberately seek war. The danger is that they begin believing in the inevitability of the war. This seems to be the case with Mark Rutte in his crusade to make Europeans buy more arms from the US, or as he sees his role: selling arms for Trump – “the man of the trillion,” as he stated at the White House last week. He was so proud of having made the Europeans spend a trillion dollars on arms under Trump’s dealmaking pressure and then hailing Trump as the leader or the saviour of the “free world.” It was an embarrassing and pathetic scene.

The Barbarossa Shadow

History weighs heavily on Russian strategic thinking. No........

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