Three years ago, in late summer 2022, the armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea were preparing for the final defeat of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), establishing a total blockade of the rebellious Tigray. Today, on the eve of a new war in the region, the balance of power has changed.

Brief background

Thus, Addis Ababa, represented by the government of Abiy Ahmed, dealt a decisive defeat to the most influential political opponent in the domestic political arena of Ethiopia, freeing up resources and, no less importantly, ambitions for pursuing an active foreign policy. The result was a sharp deterioration in relations with neighbors: Ethiopia’s desire to obtain the direct sea access was not appreciated by Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia, which received immediate support from Egypt. In turn, the TPLF suffered a fiasco in the fight against the political forces that had recently ousted it from the political Olympus of Ethiopia, but retained the “right to life”. At the same time, the formation of the Interim Tigray Administration – a governmental body accountable to Addis Ababa and not controlled by the TPLF – created a direct threat to the Front’s more than thirty-year monopoly influence in Tigray. The subsequent split in the TPLF ranks between the faction of Debretsion Gebremichael (TPLF Chairman) and the more progressive wing of Getachew Reda (Head of the Interim Administration) became an existential threat to the TPLF’s “old guard”, forcing its leaders to use all their influence, including the support of loyal generals from the TDF, to forcibly expel the........

© New Eastern Outlook