Sanae Takaichi, Three Months after Her Triumph: Challenges amid Political Dominance

Following its landslide victory in the February 8 election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in close cooperation with the Ishin no Kai party, is promoting initiatives to increase Japan’s military capabilities.

The Ruling Coalition: Signals and Prospects

After the elections, the LDP was able to independently and swiftly push its laws through the Diet. Despite this, the party decided to maintain its alliance with the Ishin no Kai. On February 15, Hirofumi Yoshimura, chairman of the Ishin no Kai, announced that his party had received an offer from Sanae Takaichi to continue cooperation. And on February 18, during the Diet vote to select a Prime Minister, the Ishin no Kai did not nominate its candidate and supported LDP Chairman Takaichi.

In the broader standoff, Sanae Takaichi would benefit from maintaining a strong alliance with one of the parties. To amend Japan’s Constitution (something Japanese conservatives have been seeking for decades), the LDP needs to secure a 2/3 majority in both the Lower and Upper Houses. Elections for the upper house will be held in 2028.

Takaichi made numerous bold promises to the public: to temporarily abolish food taxes, to increase Japan’s energy independence, to reduce the national debt, to strengthen the country’s defense capabilities, to create a unified intelligence agency, and to revise the Constitution (specifically, to clearly define the status of the Japan Self-Defense Forces). Implementing all of this will be difficult, and voters’ expectations of the prime minister remain high. Therefore, a landslide victory like the one achieved in the February elections is unlikely to be repeated in 2028.

Sanae Takaichi herself probably isn’t counting on a second miracle either, and is therefore seeking to maintain her alliance with the Ishin no Kai in order to secure a joint majority in the Upper House. For the Ishin no Kai, this will be an opportunity to advance its reforms related to decentralization and increasing the influence of Osaka, the party’s homeland.

At the same time, the risk of the Ishin no Kai leaving the coalition cannot be ruled out. The party may resort to such a step if the LDP ignores its proposals. The LDP could also team up with........

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