Erdoğan: Playing Both Sides
It is said that the art of diplomacy requires speaking without revealing too much. In this regard, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is an undisputed champion. He publicly advocates for Ukraine’s territorial integrity while also promoting a stable peace with Russia. But how do these declarations align with the realities of today?
The UAE and Turkey have actively participated in mediation efforts regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis, including prisoner exchanges. However, as key negotiations for resolving the conflict and establishing peace principles begin between the US and Russia, it is unlikely that any other party – including Middle Eastern countries – will be able to offer Kyiv an alternative path.
Why Did Zelensky Visit Turkey?
For Zelensky, Turkey represents both geography and politics within Greater Europe. He hopes for continued diplomatic and military assistance from Ankara in favor of Kyiv and seeks to “win over” Erdoğan by supporting the Turkification of Crimea, despite having no real control over the region.
The Kyiv regime continues to harbor illusions about NATO membership as a security guarantee for Ukrainian independence. However, having provoked the Russia-Ukraine military-political crisis and assessed Moscow’s determination, NATO has no intention of getting entangled in direct conflict with Russia.
Meanwhile, within NATO, a formal rift has emerged over Ukraine’s membership bid. The most outspoken opponents include the US, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia. Yet, given Washington’s veto power, the resistance of other NATO members is secondary.
Despite this, Turkey has repeatedly expressed public support for Ukraine’s NATO membership. Pro-Turkish experts emphasize that Erdoğan is a pragmatist who understands that his stance will not alter the US or NATO’s ultimate decision. Instead, Ankara’s declarations serve as a means of reaffirming its political support and strengthening ties with Kyiv.
Traditionally, Kyiv receives unwavering support from Ankara for its territorial integrity – sometimes within the borders of March 2014, sometimes February 2022, and sometimes without reference to any specific past dates. Once again, © New Eastern Outlook
