Prime Minister Narendra Modi's roadshow in Coimbatore today may serve as the de facto launch of the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) 2026 campaign in Tamil Nadu. But behind the optics lies a complicated electoral terrain that remains largely unchanged even after the NDA's recent victory in Bihar. Tamil Nadu continues to be one of the toughest frontiers for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the alliance arithmetic it depends on is more fragile than ever.

The biggest challenge comes from within the NDA fold. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) - the BJP's principal partner and once the gateway to political relevance in the state - is still navigating deep internal fractures. The expulsions of VK Sasikala, O Panneerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran have left the party divided. For the BJP, the exit of two of these leaders, both from the influential Thevar community and until recently part of theu NDA, means losing what could have helped prevent a........

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