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Vivian Bercovici: Iran's desparate blockade will ultimately fail

Iran’s shattered navy and air force, and delayed IRGC salaries, expose the desperation behind its failing Hormuz blockade

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On Wednesday, the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran ended. Late Tuesday night in Washington D.C., President Donald Trump announced that the truce would be extended indefinitely.

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Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, Vice President J.D. Vance met with senior Iranian officials in Islamabad in a 21-hour marathon negotiation. The U.S. red lines were clear: access to the Strait of Hormuz must be opened to all maritime traffic and Iran must abandon its ambition to develop nuclear weapons.

Vivian Bercovici: Iran's desparate blockade will ultimately fail Back to video

Both demands were rejected outright by Iran, which has illegally claimed (but not always asserted) sovereignty over Hormuz for decades.

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This impasse over a 165-km-long narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the open sea is choking maritime commerce and the global supply of oil and natural gas, 20 per cent of which is carried through the Strait.

Bordered on its northern shore by Iran, the southern edge of the Strait abuts numerous Gulf and Middle Eastern states: Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE and Iraq. For all but Oman and Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz provides the only access they have to the open sea. It is a critical lifeline for global maritime commerce.

It is also very challenging to navigate, due to its narrowness and shape — like a tightly bent elbow. To manage this chokepoint situated in a volatile part of the world, an unwritten protocol has developed and become accepted over decades. Shipping “lanes” — each one approximately three kilometers wide (at its narrowest, the Strait is 40 km wide) — are used for incoming and outgoing traffic. It works.

Hormuz is an international waterway that has long accommodated global shipping traffic without incident. But that changed with the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. From time to time during the last 47 years, Iran has claimed and attempted to assert absolute control over maritime traffic in the Strait, but never in such a sustained and aggressive manner as we are witnessing today. And Iran is likely doing so because it has been pummeled militarily, dramatically reducing its strategic and tactical options.

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By the end of March, 92 per cent of Iran’s largest naval vessels and more than 80 per cent of its air force assets had been destroyed by American and Israeli air attacks. With limited military leverage in the ongoing conflict with the United States, in recent weeks, the Iranian regime resorted to its most extreme tactic: claiming total control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The American position is clear. Either the status quo that prevailed for decades in the Strait is restored, or American attacks on Iran will resume.

As retired U.S. rear admiral Mark Montgomery told me in a recent interview, Iran’s unilateral control initiative is the “first step of illegal behaviour.” For weeks now, he explained, the regime has permitted vessels carrying flags of “friendly” nations — like China and India — to pass through. Many Iranian tankers are also believed to have slipped through the dragnet. Virtually all other tankers are either refused passage or harassed and threatened. Hundreds of massive shipping vessels have been anchored in the Persian Gulf for weeks, unable to move through Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman and open seas beyond. And clumps of vessels await permission to travel into the Persian Gulf through Hormuz.

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Shortly after the talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed in Islamabad in mid-April, Iran said that it had laid sea mines in the Strait but had lost track of their locations. As intended, this threat terrified commercial shipping, not keen to run the risk of being exploded by an Iranian mine. Clusters of vessels have been anchored on either end of the Strait, waiting for confirmation that it is safe to pass through.

Either the Strait is safe for all or none, logic would dictate. But Iran — claiming not to have precise knowledge as to where mines may be — has been allowing some vessels through and not others. As reported recently by Lloyd’s of London, since mid-March, Iran has exercised full control of maritime passage through the Strait, requiring vessels to provide detailed information regarding the vessel’s crew, cargo, flag, and ownership chain to the IRGC, which also engages in “geopolitical vetting.”

Lloyd’s confirms that at least two ships have paid a toll in exchange for safe passage, in Chinese currency.

President Trump has urged countries to refuse to comply with any toll demands made by the IRGC and has also demanded that any mines be removed. Until they are, he has stated that no vessels shall pass through the Strait. This response is referred to by Iran as an “illegal blockade.”

Merchant vessels fear not only sea mines, but also being attacked by IRGC missiles, drones or one of the many sleek, fast-moving speed boats zipping around and threatening crews and cargo. On Saturday, an audio recording of the captain of an Indian vessel — panicked and pleading with an Iranian navy official on an open communication channel — went viral. The Indian captain reminded the Iranian official that he had been cleared to pass through the Strait. In spite of this, the IRGC was firing on the civilian ship.

As tensions in the Gulf soared over the weekend, the U.S. Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian oil tanker that ignored American warnings to stop and return to port. Iran responded in recent days by seizing two foreign vessels and firing on a third.

And on Wednesday, a regime-friendly Iranian media outlet published reports that there was a possibility of internet and telecommunications cables laid at the bottom of the Persian Gulf may be targeted by the IRGC.

In the meantime, the Strait remains blocked by Iran and the United States, and it is unclear whether Vice President J.D. Vance will return to Islamabad to negotiate directly with Iranian counterparts. President Trump stated on Wednesday that the American counter-blockade was effectively cutting off all cash flowing into depleted Iranian state coffers. Iran does not dispute that assertion, but rather deflects, saying that the country is self-sufficient for food and life essentials.

Perhaps, but last week it was reported that salaries of IRGC and Basij officials had been delayed due to the cash squeeze. If the enforcers have no salary, their motivation may falter, leaving the regime vulnerable to internal collapse.

Or President Trump will tire of waiting and order a resumption of hostilities.

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