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Vivian Bercovici: As Trump weighs 'limited' strike on Iran, Israelis attempt normal weekend

Israel is on a knife edge

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SDEROT, Israel — Sometimes it’s the GPS. You enter a destination a half-hour from your location, and it directs you to a neighbourhood in Beirut. Or Amman.

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It’s one of many signs.

Vivian Bercovici: As Trump weighs 'limited' strike on Iran, Israelis attempt normal weekend Back to video

For more than a month now, Israelis have been carrying on with day-to-day life while expecting a massive U.S. attack to be launched on Iran at any moment.

We are pelted with random newsflashes foretelling disaster.

Wednesday evening, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned all Poles in Iran to leave immediately, saying they may not have that option in a day or two.

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Thursday night, the U.S. Embassy in Israel reportedly arranged for immediate evacuation of American exchange students in Israel, who had been scheduled to fly out on Saturday.

Israel’s Home Front Command reassures the civilian population that the country is on the highest alert. But that we should go about our lives “normally.”

We live in this space between the possibility of a brutal war with an enemy intent on annihilating this country, and quiet. Another weekend of long, lazy, Saturday lunches with family and friends. It’s one of many sacred — in the secular sense — traditions in these parts. And in the southern region — the breadbasket of Israel where I now live — this is a spectacular season. Israel’s national flower — the poppy-like anemone — is in bloom, daubing the landscape. Hills, fields are smeared with red. The area is swarmed on weekends by local tourists, picnicking, hiking, off-roading. And after two years of war,  the land is smiling back at us. No one can remember such a profusion of red blossoms.

Last Saturday, sand blew in from the Sahara Desert, resulting in the worst air quality readings in the world for two days straight. Worse than Shanghai. We breathed a muddy brown dust soup. It was biblical. Plague-like.

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This weekend promises to be the polar opposite.

But this is also the weekend of the highest of high alerts.

Friday morning we wakened to early spring splendour; sunny, warm, a light breeze. Fields are peak verdant, particularly this winter, which brought plenty of rain.

A neighbour drops by with a bag of lemons from his tree. My lemon, olive-oil dessert has made me something of a local celebrity. Kibbutz members ensure I have a steady lemon supply.

We drink coffee. Talk about weekend plans.

“What do you think?” I ask him.

Today, Israelis live on a knife edge. For more than a month there has been a sense of looming dread. An American military attack on Iran feels inevitable.

In mid-January, after the arrest of thousands of Iranian civilians peacefully protesting for regime change, President Trump issued harsh threats.

As the regime violence escalated, Trump reassured the Iranian people, “Help is on the way.”

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A buildup of American military might — unseen since 2003 — began to coalesce in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump warned the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic that if peaceful civilian protesters were executed that America would attack Iran. Hard.

The Iranian blowback would target Israel. No question. We would be hammered with ballistic missiles launched from Iran and, possibly, Iraq.

Speaking on Thursday at the first gathering of the Board of Peace — that will oversee the rebuilding of Gaza and disarming of terror groups and tribal clans (at least, that’s the plan) — Trump remarked, with displeasure, that Iran is not participating constructively at the negotiation table. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials this week were disappointing. Trump stated plainly that if an agreement is not reached within 10 to 15 days that “bad things” will happen.

My friend with the lemons thinks nothing will happen in the coming days.

But speculation abounds that this forward-looking 10-day talk is a “psy op” (a “fake-out”) meant to relax Iran, to convince them that they still have time to negotiate.

It could all be a ruse. The U.S. may launch a surprise attack. And on Friday, Trump said he is considering a “limited” initial strike in an attempt to force Iran into a deal before launching a more expansive campaign. This weekend. Hence, all the high alerts.

The conventional scenario contemplated is that the U.S. attacks Iran. Iran lashes back at American military bases in the region but concentrates its retaliation on Israel. If the regime is going down – they will do everything in their power to take Israel along with them. They will have nothing to lose.

Israel would hit back. Hard. The potential for multiple warfronts erupting simultaneously is real and likely. And the three prominent global powers — America, China and Russia — are deeply invested in the region and their allies.

But the U.S. and Israel are also prepared for a pre-emptive Iranian strike on Israel. This would ensure a powerful Israeli response but may complicate direct U.S. involvement.

“What do you think? Will they attack?”

It’s the first thing everyone asks.

Neighbours ask. Store clerks ask. Radio talk shows (a huge thing here) contemplate the possibilities, endlessly. Visitors from abroad ask. “Should we leave?” People from abroad phone and ask. “Should we still come?”

“If I knew,” I say, “I’d be running Polymarket,” the online betting site that has a quite stellar track record for predicting outcomes of major geopolitical crises and events.

Everyone turns to someone else, hoping they will have the “inside scoop”.

In January, the tension in Israel was extreme. After more than two years of war, and a wobbly ceasefire with Hamas, exhaustion was everywhere. And a war with Iran — which is considered to be inevitable should the U.S. attack — will be to the death. The Iranian regime will fight ferociously, especially if it sees defeat as a possibility. Its leadership will inflict maximum harm on Israel, hoping, of course, to destroy the Jewish state.

Israelis just want it to be over. We wait, resigned but ready.

Should a new Iran emerge, one that is liberal and democratic — the impact on the regional and global geopolitical order will be seismic, isolating Islamist regimes like Qatar and Turkey, as well as their terrorist proxies. Hamas. Hezbollah. Houthis.

Trump says he wants peace. Recently, he said that regime change would be the best outcome.

We boomerang with every new bit of info.

I know many people who had planned to visit Israel recently and cancelled their trips at the last minute. “What if?”

When you live here, you don’t have that luxury.

Israelis are very pragmatic. They are drained from war and waiting for more. If it is inevitable — and, regrettably, this round likely is — then bring it on. The sooner it begins the sooner it ends.

In the meantime, I have a storm to cook up for the throngs of guests arriving at my place Saturday afternoon. What will be will be. You learn not to fret over things you cannot control.

Vivian Bercovici is a former Canadian ambassador to Israel and the founder of stateoftelaviv.com, an independent media enterprise.

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