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Adam Pankratz: It's not too late for Canada to become an energy superpower

Iran war confirms our allies need a stable source of oil and gas

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As the war in Iran intensifies, reports are that Canada is looking at ways to boost our oil supply to the world. Indeed even Energy Minister Tim Hodgson got in on the act saying Wednesday Canada would “do its part” to help the International Energy Agency in its release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles around the world and calm oil prices. Though, in typical fashion, Hodgson did not say what our “part” would be.

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Finding ways to boost Canadian oil production and supply is a positive development but comes with a problem: our options are very limited due the to the self-inflicted wounds from the government’s infrastructure decisions during the last decade and the fact that Canada, unlike other countries, doesn’t have a strategic oil reserve. This is also the reason for the non-committal leaning in Hodgson’s comments; we can’t do much more and any increase will be at the margins, not a significant improvement from where we already are.

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For any country like Canada with vast energy resources, events like the war in Iran should be taken not as a one-off event, but a message to build out our capacity at every opportunity. In today’s world volatility is becoming the norm and, as a result, stability — or more specifically a stable energy supplier — is more important than ever. Canada can — and should — be that supplier to our allies and the world. The best to time start was yesterday, the next best time is now.

We have fortunately not been completely derelict of duty and are exceptionally fortunate at the moment that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was completed in 2024. Currently, those pipeline flows have doubled and the expansion is nearly at capacity. A doubling of pipeline flows isn’t just an abstraction, it represents real dollars. In its first year of operation, the pipeline has boosted oil patch revenues by $12.6 billion and contributed $5.4 billion more to Alberta government revenues while the federal government received $1.7 billion. Those dollars pay for everything Canadians want, whether imports like cell phones and oranges, or government services like health care and education.

We should be doing more.

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Despite all their dithering the Liberals deserve some credit for getting Trans Mountain across the finish line. But they deserve equal — or perhaps more — criticism for not getting the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines built.

Energy East, in particular, would a have been massive financial and geopolitical boon right now. That project with a capacity of over 1.1 million barrels would have brought crude to eastern Canada and the Atlantic coast. Not only would it have reduced eastern Canada’s dependence on imported oil, but would have allowed for export directly to Europe from a terminal in Saint John, New Brunswick.

The same story can be told about the Northern Gateway pipeline to northwest British Columbia which would have added over half a million barrels to our export capacity which could have gone to Asia and elsewhere in the world.

Mercifully, the news is not all completely bad. In B.C., LNG Canada was completed in 2025 and has ramped up exports since the Iran war began. We could get a final investment decision from the proponent of LNG Canada phase 2 this year, which would double export capacity. Further, export terminals Cedar LNG in Kitimat, B.C. — slated for completion in 2028 — and Ksi Lisims LNG, off B.C.’s northwest coast, and slated for completion in 2029, will add to Canada’s capacity to fuel the world. All these projects should be universally celebrated and used as a catalyst to do more.

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We cannot, however, rest on our laurels. LNG Canada, Cedar and Ksi Lisims are good developments. Yet the reality remains that in the time Canada build our one LNG Canada export terminal, the United States built nine. We also forget far too easily that at one point there were 18 – yes 18 – LNG export terminals proposed on Canada’s west coast alone. Fifteen years later we have built just one. That’s a not track record we should be proud of, even as we celebrate the most recent, but very delayed, success.

In a volatile world, Canada can be the reliable partner of choice for energy supply to our closest friends and more distant trading partners. The world wants our oil. The world wants our LNG. These aren’t short term opportunities. They are long term investments in our future as world oil consumption is projected to increase into at least 2050, while LNG use accelerates upwards every year.

Becoming an energy superpower isn’t a fantasy: it must be Canada’s goal within a decade. The Iran war oil dislocation isn’t an anomaly, it’s our new normal and we must step up to the plate and deliver.

Adam Pankratz is a lecturer at the University of British Columbia’s Sauder School of Business.

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