With Parliament now back in business, pundits and politicos are focused on this session’s agenda.

What will the government do about Trump and tariffs? How will Mark Carney perform in Question Period? When will Pierre Poilievre return to Parliament? And how will the NDP survive without party status?

But not much will happen on the Hill in the next few weeks: the PM will be busy hosting the G7 at Kananaskis in Alberta, and the House will rise in late June.

No, the real intrigue lies just over the horizon in the fall. The big question: Can the Liberal minority morph into a majority by then, to secure four years of power and avoid tangling with the opposition?

The math is simple: The Liberals currently hold 169 seats, after the Newfoundland riding of Terra Nova—The Peninsulas flipped to the Conservatives following a recent recount.

If the courts order a byelection in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, where Elections Canada sent........

© Montreal Gazette