Both Donald Trump and Israeli leaders fundamentally misjudged the nature of Iran’s nuclear file. The “maximum pressure” campaign, culminating in a joint 12-day military assault by the US and Israel, ultimately had no tangible effect on dismantling Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Between 2005 and 2014, Iran succeeded in creating an irreversible reality on the ground: by delaying a final agreement with world powers, it used the time to complete the nuclear knowledge cycle and build a chain of expertise. This shift redefined the playing field of diplomacy and the nature of negotiations.

Unlike Iraq, Syria, or Libya, Iran did not simply import and install nuclear infrastructure. Instead, it localised and embedded nuclear knowledge by establishing nuclear physics departments at its universities, training several generations of students, and advancing its own scientific and engineering expertise. This is precisely why the Obama administration adopted a strategy of containment, seeking to manage Iran’s nuclear capacity through one of the most rigorous inspection regimes ever implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This approach sharply contrasted with the Bush and Trump administrations’ doctrine........

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