In the intellectual circles of Washington and its allies, a growing certainty is evident: a combination of military and economic pressure can bring Iran to its knees or drive it towards collapse. Analysts present detailed three-step plans to “crush Tehran” and postulate that the West holds strategic superiority. However, a deeper look at the array of global and regional developments illustrates this certainty to be a dangerous “strategic illusion”. These roadmaps, by ignoring systemic consequences, geopolitical blind spots and their own internal vulnerabilities, chart a path towards an uncontrollable and attritional quagmire rather than a route to victory.

The fundamental weakness of these analyses is the oversimplification of the conflict’s nature. For example, the strategy of simultaneously intensifying economic and military pressure ignores the fact that modern warfare is a two-way street. While one side focuses on targeting the opponent’s economy, the other side takes the war to a new and dangerous level by targeting energy infrastructure.

The cycle of mutual retaliation against refineries and gas facilities, as the recent confrontation between Iran and Israel demonstrated, rapidly transforms from a tactical achievement into an existential threat for both sides.

The cycle of mutual retaliation against refineries and gas facilities, as the recent confrontation between Iran and Israel demonstrated, rapidly transforms from a tactical achievement into an existential threat for both sides.

This situation increases the risk of disruption to electricity networks, desalination plants and supply........

© Middle East Monitor