As Lebanon approaches parliamentary elections in May 2026, the country stands at a crossroads. Hizballah, the mighty image of Lebanese politics and Middle Eastern resistance, has been left battered and isolated politically after its latest confrontation with Israel. But even in its weakened position, the organization remains defiant—retaining its weapons and its strategic patronage from Iran.

The Party, also locally referred to as Hizballah, has lost nearly all its former Lebanese allies. Its decision to strike against Israel last year repelled political elites and parts of civil society. Still, Hizballah’s win in the just-concluded municipal elections demonstrates a resilience: its economic machine continues to exert power, particularly through local media and patronage networks. The elections later this year are very unlikely to produce a clear anti-Hizballah majority.

President Joseph Aoun, Lebanon’s former military leader, assumed office in January 2025 with a reform agenda and strong backing from Western countries. However, his approach to Hizballah has been cautious and calibrated. While continuing to make public commitments to disarm Hizballah, Aoun has in private ruled out using the military option. Behind closed doors, he insists that negotiations and agreements must preface any operation to reclaim Hizballah weapons. His approach is both reflective of political realism and of the limits of state power.

In January 2025, Aoun directed his staff officers to prepare a plan for disarming Hizballah by September 2. But the government has since........

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