Despite months of negotiations, countless documents exchanged, and shuttle diplomacy stretching from Cairo to Doha to Washington and back, the war in Gaza—now entering its 22nd month—shows no signs of resolution. The question looms larger than ever: Why has Israel been unable to bring this war, which began on October 7, 2023, to a definitive close?

As Israel plunged deeper into its military campaign, diplomatic efforts began to sketch out visions for what many called “the day after”—a post-war Gaza. Yet none of these proposals have materialised into a viable plan. Israel lacks a realistic, achievable, and regionally or internationally acceptable framework for governing Gaza once the fighting stops. Even within Israeli society, there is no consensus on what a post-war Gaza should look like.

Meron Rapaport, an Israeli journalist and analyst, points to a fundamental political constraint:

“Netanyahu knows that any kind of Palestinian government in Gaza—away from Hamas—has to be linked one way or another to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which is unacceptable to him.” Rapaport adds: “Any link between Gaza and the West Bank rings the bell of a Palestinian state or entity, and that’s a red line for Netanyahu.”

The January 2025 ceasefire revealed a reality that caught both Israel and much of the international community off guard: Hamas retained a formidable grip on Gaza. Its policing presence was visible and organized, and its control over territory and public life remained intact. During the hostage release ceremonies, Hamas and its coalition of resistance factions staged public displays of authority that starkly contradicted Israeli claims of having dismantled the group’s infrastructure.

© Middle East Monitor