Is the UDF’s impressive win in the Nilambur by-poll a trailer for the 2026 assembly polls? Has it sealed the LDF’s chances of a consecutive third term in power, referred to as “Pinarayi 3.0”?

Surely, barring last year’s Lok Sabha polls in which it was trounced, the Nilambur defeat is the biggest blow suffered by the LDF since it came to power in 2021. Why? Though it was vanquished in three of the four by-elections held in the past four years, Nilambur is the only sitting seat from which the ruling LDF has been ousted.

This drubbing carries added significance as it could serve as a curtain-raiser for next May’s assembly elections — a battle that may determine whether the century-old Indian Communist movement can retain power in its last remaining stronghold.

What were the factors that prompted the Nilambur result? At the beginning of the campaign, both the UDF and the LDF had held that the election would be a referendum on the government. While the UDF warned that the result would be an indictment of the government’s failures, the LDF claimed it would be an endorsement of its achievements. However, within days, the campaign gave way, (as usual in most elections), to emotional and volatile issues rather than a rational analysis of the government’s performance. Even that highly critical issue affecting Nilambur - the human-animal conflict- which has been haunting a large number of voters was relegated to the back burner. This shift was triggered by the support declared for the UDF and LDF, respectively, by two numerically minor outfits- the Jamaat-e-Islami-led Welfare Party of India and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Though these organisations had done the same in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections too, UDF and LDF accused each other of allying with Islamic communalism. This received even more traction when Opposition leader VD Satheesan and CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan attempted to justify their respective alliances. While Satheesan claimed that the Jamaat Islami was no longer a fundamentalist organisation since it had abandoned its Islamic State project, Govindan certified PDP as a victim of oppression. This turned the campaign almost wholly around the question, which front was more communal? In the process, this helped the WFI and PDP to get what they wanted: a political visibility disproportionate to their real........

© Mathrubhumi English