By Dr Haian Dukhan

When the guns in Ukraine eventually fall silent, many in Europe will breathe a sigh of relief.

Yet a peace agreement there could open the door to a new challenge: a more assertive Russia in the Middle East. For Moscow, the region has always been more than a sideshow. It offers military footholds, diplomatic leverage, and economic partnerships that compensate for its isolation from the West.

A ceasefire in Ukraine would not end Russia’s global ambitions; it might redirect them southwards.

The war in Ukraine has consumed Russia’s military and paramilitary bandwidth. From supplying Iran with drones to sustaining its bases in Syria, Moscow has been forced to ration its commitments.

Analysts have noted that the war limited Russia’s ability to respond to Iranian requests for more direct support in times of crisis. A peace deal would ease these constraints.

In Syria, even after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, Russia has clung to its military assets at Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval facility. It is now negotiating with the transitional government to secure long-term basing rights. Freed from the daily grind of the Ukrainian front, Moscow could reinforce these positions, signalling to both Washington and Ankara that it remains an indispensable power in the Levant.

Beyond........

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