What is Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a water-sharing agreement signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, brokered by the World Bank. It governs the use of the waters of six rivers that flow from India into Pakistan. The treaty allocates the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India, while the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) are mostly reserved for Pakistan, with limited usage rights for India. It is considered one of the most successful water-sharing treaties globally, having survived multiple wars and tensions between the two countries, although calls for its renegotiation have grown recently.

How Many Rivers Does It Cover, Average Discharge, and How Much Pakistan Gets?

The Indus Waters Treaty covers six major rivers of the Indus Basin:

Key Distribution:

• Pakistan gets around 80% of the total waters (~386 BCM annually).
• India gets around 20% (~49 BCM annually), limited largely to non-consumptive use (like run-of-the-river hydropower) on western rivers.

Context: Thus, even though the rivers originate in India, Pakistan enjoys the lion’s share of water under the treaty. India’s usage of western rivers is heavily restricted and monitored.

What Will Happen if India Stops Water to Pakistan?

Pros for Pakistan:

• None. Stoppage would cause a severe water crisis.
• Pakistan’s agriculture, especially Punjab’s cotton, wheat, and rice production, would suffer catastrophic losses.

Cons for Pakistan:

• Massive economic collapse in agriculture sector.
• Food shortages, inflation, and social unrest.
• Threats to hydroelectric power production.
• Potential humanitarian crisis and forced migration.

In essence, stopping the water would devastate Pakistan’s economy and destabilize the internal social fabric, possibly even leading to conflict escalation.

Pros for India:

• Assertion of sovereign rights over Indus waters.
• Strategic leverage over Pakistan for security reasons.
• More water availability for Indian agriculture and hydropower.

Cons for India:

• Possible international backlash (World Bank, UN pressure).
• Risk of escalating tensions, even leading to open conflict.
• Huge infrastructure costs needed to divert, store, and utilize additional waters.
• Environmental impacts within Indian territory, like submergence and altered riverine ecosystems.

Based on Pros and Cons for India, What Must India Do?

Given the pros and cons, India must adopt a balanced strategy rather than abrupt stoppage:

Diplomatic Positioning:
India should formally notify the world bodies (World Bank, United Nations) that Pakistan’s continued hostility nullifies the spirit of the treaty. Legal and diplomatic groundwork must be laid carefully before full withdrawal.