Historians may dub 2024 “the polycritical year” or “the year of uncertainty”. “Polycrisis” is a buzzword first coined by a French philosopher to describe a situation in which the collective impact of distinct but interrelated threats is so overwhelming that it is not possible to identify the precise cause of the crisis and, therefore, provide a solution.

The year ended with the world at the junction of multiple crossroads — geopolitics, geoeconomics, geoenergy and geotechnics. One route leads to a dystopian future. The other is to progress, stability and sustainability. The challenge for 2025 is to resolve uncertainties and steer the world in the latter direction.

Seventy countries went to the polls in 2024. One thread linked the results of all the elections. The electorate voted against the incumbent leadership. In some countries, notably the USA and the UK, the ruling party was turfed out of office. In others like France and Japan, the leadership returned to power with a reduced mandate. Many commentators have provided an explanation for this wave of anti-incumbency. Some have adduced economic slowdown, others inflation, still others social media-induced polarisation and public anger. They are all correct. The explanation lies in a mix of these factors. What is uncertain is whether these factors capture fully the drivers behind this public reaction. Is this mood change an “aberrant moment in time” (President Joe Biden’s comment regards........

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