In two recent articles, Surjit Bhalla argues that the weakening of reforms, declining investor confidence, and the revised BIT framework signal a loss of economic momentum. While the concerns raised deserve attention, the conclusions drawn are neither fully supported by evidence nor reflective of the broader economic reality.

First, any analysis of economic performance must account for global shocks. When crisis years are excluded, India’s average GDP growth during 2005-2014 stands at approximately 7.2 per cent, compared to nearly 7.4 per cent during 2014-2024, achieved despite Covid-19, supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, and tightening global financial conditions. The evidence suggests considerable resilience in India’s growth trajectory despite far more adverse external conditions.

Second, the assumption that BITs are the primary drivers of FDI is not supported by global evidence. A major 2014 UNCTAD study covering 146 economies over 27 years found no conclusive evidence that BITs significantly increase bilateral FDI inflows.

Third, investment decisions are shaped by larger factors. The G20 Investment Report (2020) found that investor protection ranked only 10th among decision-influencing factors. Political stability, market size, infrastructure quality, and long-term growth prospects remain the principal determinants. India continues to hold strong advantages across........

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