The attack at the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam, where at least 25 tourists and a Valley resident were killed, reflects a significant departure in the trajectory of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). It is a breakdown of the unwritten compact between virtually all terrorist groups operating in the now Union Territory and the larger population there — that tourists would not be targeted. Virtually every family in the Valley is directly or indirectly dependent on tourism, and a collapse of the industry would inflict unendurable hardships on the entire population. Thus, even at the peak of terrorism in J&K, through the 1990s and early 2000s, tourists were excluded as targets of terrorist operations. Even in several years that saw high levels of violence, tourism was not allowed to collapse entirely. There were, of course, occasional aberrations. The South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), for instance, records a total of 24 incidents targeting tourists since 2000, of which 13 were incidents of killing, resulting in 44 fatalities. This excludes the latest incident in Pahalgam. Significantly, these numbers include Hindu pilgrims, who have never been part of the “implicit compact” excluding tourists as targets of terrorism.

Beyond this — and the inevitable impact the Pahalgam incident will have on the tourist industry in J&K — this most recent terrorist outrage represents no radical departure from the trajectory of the past. The incident will certainly trigger a process of adaptation on the part of the security forces, as well as at least temporary circumscription of tourist........

© Indian Express