The first clear sign the Trump administration was taking a long, hard look at AUKUS came two weeks ago when US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth gave his first major speech on American strategic policy in Asia at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.

In a long presentation that catalogued a host of initiatives with America’s Asian allies, AUKUS was not mentioned once.

This was noteworthy because under the Biden administration, AUKUS was the poster child for US military engagement in the region, name-checked at every opportunity. Now we understand why.

The Pentagon’s review of AUKUS, announced last week, marks the first time any of the three partners – the United States, Britain and Australia – has tested the AUKUS dream against hard military and strategic realities. It is unlikely to survive.

AUKUS was always a long shot, right from the start. That was clear from the moment, back in September 2021, that then-prime minister, Scott Morrison, sprung the dream of an Australian nuclear-powered submarine force on an astonished public. For that dream to be realised, a lot of things would have to go right, and most of them were much more likely to go wrong.

But the flaw that looks set to kill the AUKUS dream is one that was not part of the original plan.

The way Morrison and his then defence minister, Peter Dutton, originally conceived it, there would be no need for Australia to acquire US-built Virginia-Class subs in........

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