Intifar Chowdhury looked at 35 years of data to see how Australians vote. Here’s what it tells us about the next election

In the 2022 federal election, two demographics were key to the final outcome: women and young people.

With another election fast approaching, will they swing the result again?

To answer this question, I turned to the Australian Election Study (AES) data spanning the period from 1987 to 2022, to investigate how different demographics have voted over time.

I found that, generally, Australian women and young people tend to favour left-of-centre parties.

However, specific election issues can have a substantial impact, making the political context of each election crucial. So what can we expect this time around?

Last year highlighted a growing gulf in political leanings between the sexes worldwide.

Young women are increasingly progressive. Young men – particularly Gen Z (born after 1994) – are leaning more conservative in many countries, including the United States, China, South Korea and Germany.

My analysis of the Australian data mirrors global trends, but with a twist.

Young Australian women are moving sharply to the left. But unlike in many other countries, young Australian men are also shifting left, just at a slower pace.

Australia’s leftward move across generations is reflected in both self-placement on a left-right ideological scale, and in the vote in federal elections.

In the 2022 Australian election, the Coalition received its lowest-ever share of the women’s vote at just........

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