The global consequences of attacking Iran

Under fire from the Iranian retaliation, the Gulf nations are wondering if the US miscalculated, leaving them fully exposed to attack in order to prioritize the protection of its own bases and Israel.

As soon as you step outside the television fiction of the Situation Room set up in a certain club at Mar-a-Lago – complete with a cardboard set of blackout curtains, ringing telephones and a map hanging behind the commander of the “beautiful armada” – it becomes clear that the US and Israeli aggression against the Iranian regime is linking together a number of separate crises and could detonate multiple war fronts. These fronts will expand the longer this first war of the “Board of Peace” era drags on.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth speaks of “Operation Epic Fury” as a mission that puts an end to 47 years of war against the United States; however, he is forced to admit that destroying Iran's military capabilities will not happen overnight.

Trump claims he doesn’t want the war to last too long, but hints that it will. He specifies that he always thought it would last four weeks, gloating that “we are destroying them” ahead of schedule. Hegseth states there will be no boots on the ground, but Trump refuses to rule it out. They emphasize having achieved “air superiority,” but they know perfectly well that this alone has never led to regime change.

While this contradictory push-and-pull goes on, the war has already expanded. And not just due to the involvement of Lebanon: US General Dan Caine has already spoken of additional troops and a “greater use of tactical aviation” in the theater of operations. On the European front, the United Kingdom has finally granted the US the use of its military bases. The British have been targeted in Cyprus, while France – hit in Abu Dhabi – has declared itself ready to defend the Gulf countries. The Iranian monarchists and the Israeli leadership, for their part, do not seem interested in a negotiated transition in Tehran. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is already calling Turkey the “next Iran,” with all the implications that come from designating a NATO member as an enemy.

Faced with American and Israeli missile stockpiles that would suffer critical shortages in the event of a protracted war, the Iranians seem to have learned a few lessons from the “12-day war” last June. Today, Russia and China are far more involved than in the past in providing aid, intelligence and military equipment to Iran.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has urged the US and Israel to immediately halt military operations to prevent the conflict from spreading across the entire Middle Eastern region. Under fire from the Iranian retaliation, the Gulf nations are wondering if the US miscalculated, leaving them fully exposed to attack in order to prioritize the protection of its own bases and Israel. The largest ports, airports and fossil fuel extraction infrastructure are being systematically targeted, with a profound impact on the global economy.

But there is more: possible convergences are emerging involving two other massive crisis theaters – the Red Sea/Horn of Africa region and the Afghan-Pakistani border, where fighting is already underway right in the middle of Ramadan. For days, Islamabad's military has been striking deep into enemy territory, from Kandahar all the way to Kabul, with dozens of dead. Attempts by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to ease tensions have yielded no results, a reality that highlights the total absence of a regional security mechanism capable of managing crises. Historically aligned with China in its rivalry against India, Pakistan faces an incredibly unstable situation: a weak economy and a polarized political arena, as evidenced by the 22 dead during the assaults on US consulates on March 2.

In the Red Sea region, the Ethiopian federation is on the brink of a multi-front, Yugoslav-style civil war. While hosting Turkish President Erdogan, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Abiy Ahmed revived an old trope of Ethiopian nationalism: escaping the country's “geopolitical prison” by securing access to the sea. On March 1, Abiy did not show up for the 130th anniversary of the “glorious victory” at Adwa against the Italian invaders, leaving the stage to President Taye Atske Selassie, who doubled down on the expansionist line. The hundreds of thousands of deaths – accompanied by rampant rape, torture and famine – in the recent war against Tigrayan separatists could turn out to be merely an interlude.

Indeed, ever since Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's recent visit, there has been a massive buildup of troops and heavy armor, together with the declaration of a general alert. The Tigray People's Liberation Front has condemned this mobilization as a violation of the peace agreement. The Amhara Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Front have also mobilized. A new war in Ethiopia would almost certainly intertwine with the Sudanese civil war, where the UAE – backed by Ethiopian state support – is propping up the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). A direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could also reignite, potentially dragging Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel into more or less direct involvement. Somalia, which hosts Turkish F-16 fighter jets, strongly contests the secessionist aspirations of Somaliland. The latter, however, has secured recognition of its independence from Israel. For his part, Somali President Hassan Sheikh attended a military parade held in Cairo in mid-February.

Looking at the broader picture, a de facto alignment is taking shape among countries aiming to challenge the status quo, starting with the signatories of the Abraham Accords – Israel and the United Arab Emirates – backed by a revisionist Ethiopia. On the other side, a Sunni axis is emerging among the largest and most populous countries in the macro-region, which have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo: Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

In the background looms the massive Shiite question, stretching from Africa to Afghanistan, which has historically had the Iran of the ayatollahs as its lodestar. Almost all wars begin with the expectation of rapid military success.

© Il Manifesto Global