From Iran’s perspective, the current war is a continuation of the US–Israeli attacks on the nuclear and missile programme in June 2025, which was followed by European countries’ triggering of the ‘snapback’ of the UN sanctions, seen in Tehran as aimed at creating internal unrest. President Donald Trump’s threats to intervene in support of protesters created the worst security scenario for Iran: the overlapping of internal unrest with external attack.

Trump’s diplomacy was driven by a logic of strategic coercion or compellence that an internally weakened and militarily vulnerable Iran should make maximum concessions to remove the threat of a US attack. Iran found US assurances or inducements inadequate: only minimal sanctions relief upfront in exchange for far-reaching concessions on the nuclear file.

Iran was confronted with a long-dreaded two-front reality, where the US was waging a ‘hybrid warfare’, using economic pressures and support for separatist forces to foment internal unrest and destabilise the regime, while using the threat of war to force Iran to give up its nuclear and missile programmes. Tehran rejected strategic surrender and instead braced for a military confrontation, which could potentially improve Iran’s bargaining position vis-à-vis the US.

Tehran’s existential framing........

© IDSA