Keir Starmer is set to face difficult questions after the local elections.

On the face of it, the forecast did not appear to be too bad for Labour.

Lord Hayward, the Tory peer and polling expert, said his party are on course to lose 500 seats in next Thursday’s local elections.

Labour, meanwhile, could end up with roughly the same number of councillors they have now, and could even pick up a few extra.

But the headline figures do not even come close to telling the full story, and hide a worrying trend that is causing headaches in 10 Downing Street.

For a start, the Conservatives are defending around 900 council seats compared to Labour’s 250.

In the normal run of things, a bad night for the Conservatives – which May 1 will undoubtedly be – should mean a good one for Labour, with the party picking up a hefty chunk of Tory seats.

The main beneficiaries of the Tory collapse this time, however, are set to be Reform UK, who could see their number of councillors soar by around 450.

Ominously for the prime minister, many of those will be in the Midlands and the North, part of the fabled “Red Wall” of seats which were Labour for decades before switching to Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019.

Although they reverted to Labour last July, party strategists know they are vulnerable to Reform next time around – and the local elections look set to confirm that.

What’s more, Labour could also see their 15,000 majority evaporate in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election taking place on the same day, with Reform poised to claim the seat.

But it is not just Reform who are taking support from Labour.

Polling shows that a significant chunk of those who voted for Starmer last July, and are unhappy with the government, are looking to the Lib Dems and Greens rather than throw their lot in with........

© HuffPost