India has shown that it will not accept terror attacks emanating from Pakistani soil and displayed serious political intent and military capacity to counter it. Pakistan has shown that it is not a pushover although the asymmetry in power was evident, and that it possesses military and diplomatic capabilities to stand its ground. China has shown that it will leave no stone unturned to use Pakistan to weaken India. And, America has shown that despite being a distracted power with the intent to do less in the rest of the world, it remains the decisive player in the international system to shape the course of war and peace.

That is the big picture that emerges out of the post-Pahalgam churn. But first here is a quick summary of how India and Pakistan got here based on the limited information in the public domain.

Pakistani-backed terrorists killed civilians based on their religion in Pahalgam. India decided that wasn’t acceptable and prepared for a fortnight before mounting unprecedented strikes in both Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Punjab against nine terror camps and bases. With Chinese equipment and support, Pakistan was possibly able to inflict some damage on Indian air capabilities, a fact that India hasn’t yet publicly acknowledged. Pakistan then began an offensive against key Indian military bases across the western border, which India countered effectively and then responded by neutralising Lahore’s air defence system.

Pakistan then mounted a drone-based offensive against urban centres and military bases in India which were intercepted; India responded with drone attacks of its own on military sites in Pakistan. Pakistan continued its offensive the next day, adding missile strikes on Indian air bases. India lost patience and hit three key Pakistani Air Force bases, including the one in Rawalpindi. This led to a renewed Pakistani offensive against Indian military installations and civilian centres and the likely mobilisation of ground troops. All this while, cross-border shelling at the Line of Control (LoC) kept intensifying with an increasing loss of lives. At this point, on Saturday........

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