India’s relationship with the US in terms of IT has long been symbiotic. The largest share of India’s trade surplus with the US comes from IT services exports, and American tech companies view India as a high-potential market. This mutual dependence now faces an uncertain future because of US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on merchandise imports and the undercurrents of global recessionary headwinds linked to it. We must remain alert to the possible disruption in our IT exports, despite Washington’s current focus on the goods markets.

A key dimension of Trump’s tariffs is the indirect but potentially very large shock they may produce for all parts of the global economy — and by extension, Indian IT. Trump’s tariffs are likely to suppress consumer demand in the US, because they will make most things costlier, at least in the medium run. Trump has called upon the Federal Reserve to lower rates in order to make borrowing cheaper, hoping to bolster consumer spending. However, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has signalled resistance, underscoring that central banking independence remains a cornerstone of institutional maturity in the US economy.

Rising inflation could mean that Americans — businesses included — must tighten their........

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