India pivot in a time of great global churn
The Second Trump Administration is doubling down on tariffs and Make America Great Again policies. It is also redefining and rewriting alliances of the past, with reverberations being felt by their allies in Europe and Asia. These moves aim to strengthen the US’ economy by improving trade balance and reducing public spending. At the same time, the US has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, the World Health Organization (WHO), and earlier, it had withdrawn from the International Court of Justice (ICJ). These moves are creating a vacuum in the global geopolitical order. This vacuum will not remain for long — it will be filled by competing powers. While the US remains the most powerful actor, we are seeing the rise of a multipolar world once again. Fragmenting globalisation, the battle for technological supremacy, the geopolitics of energy, and collapsing global governance are the key geopolitical trends reshaping our world that India must navigate.
The era of globalisation we have seen in the post-World War II era is coming to an end as we know it. Since the global financial crisis, we have seen fragmented globalisation. Trade wars accelerated this fragmentation. The Covid-19 pandemic saw a massive disruption in global supply chains, prompting countries and businesses to build alternative supply chains. With the Trump Administration again pursuing tariffs, the second era of trade wars is upon us. Whether reciprocal or across-the-board tariffs, the trade wars will disrupt world trade immensely. Trade wars are no longer just about merchandise. They impact factors such as technology,........
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