Andy Burnham has certainly left plenty of folk shivering in their shoes. His win at Makerfield goes way beyond simply setting him on course to take down Keir Starmer and become the next Prime Minister. He’s driven a stake through the heart of Reform. Burnham’s vote far exceeds combined ballots for Reform, the far-right Restore Party and the Conservatives. 

This is now the third time in recent months when Reform has lost in by-elections which any party, if it was on its way to government, should be winning. The notion of inevitability around a Nigel Farage premiership now seems rather fanciful. 

This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter.

Clearly, though, there’s a long, hard path for Burnham to walk yet. He must still beat Starmer, and then - if he does win - he faces the almost impossible task of turning Labour’s fortunes around.

However, Burnham’s thumping win makes it clear that the next general election will be a much closer, harder fight if he’s at Labour’s helm.

So Starmer and Farage have much to worry about.

Yet so has John Swinney. Indeed, Burnham presents a possible nightmare scenario for the SNP. If Burnham can stabilise Labour and then stabilise the Westminster government, that bodes ill for the SNP.

The one remaining unbroken rule of politics is that the SNP does well when Westminster is in chaos. When Westminster performs, the SNP suffers. 

Losing Aberdeen South makes clear that the SNP’s fortunes are certainly in decline. 

Now, whether that’s down........

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