Later this month at the Scottish Fiscal Commission we will publish updated forecasts for the Scottish economy.

In normal times, six months is a short period to expect much difference in the economic outlook. However, recent years have seen a rise in unexpected events, from Covid to the cost-of-living crisis, making the outlook more susceptible to change.

Developments 3,500 miles away in Washington DC have been the dominant factor in shaping a fast-moving set of economic conditions this year. While economists had long warned of the global trade risks from a new Trump administration, the scale of protectionist measures and their chaotic rollout has surprised even seasoned observers.

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At the time of writing, significant uncertainty remains about future US and third-country trade policies, even in the short term. This is dragging down growth expectations and fuelling market volatility. Unsurprisingly, the IMF has downgraded its global growth forecasts for this year and next.

If fully implemented in July, the effective tariff in the US would rise to around 25%, the highest rate in over a century, and even greater than during the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act at........

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