Last week at the Scottish Fiscal Commission we published our latest report examining the long-term sustainability of Scotland’s public finances. The analysis spans the next 50 years and sets out some of the fiscal pressures we are likely to face. While many of these challenges are shared across the UK, Scotland’s different population dynamics mean that we face them sooner and often more acutely.

Among the most significant of these challenges is the twin effect of an ageing population and a history of poor health outcomes. These are not just public health concerns; they are fundamental determinants of the future strength of our economy and public finances.

Healthcare is already the largest area of public spending in Scotland and will grow faster than any other part of the budget. That growth is partly driven by demand. As the population gets older, more people require care, and the cost of providing it rises. Our analysis shows health spending increases sharply with age, and we are on the cusp of a demographic shift that will have profound implications.

Over the next 25 years, the number of people in Scotland aged over 75 will grow rapidly. Indeed, the number of those aged 85 and over is projected to nearly double. At the same time,........

© Herald Scotland