The town of Pahalgam, long celebrated as a crown jewel of Kashmir’s tourism circuit, now finds itself at the center of a tragedy that has shaken the Valley. On a day that should have seen tourists trekking to Aru and fishing by the Lidder River, violence struck without warning. The attack, which left 26 tourists dead and several injured, not only claimed innocent lives but also delivered a devastating blow to Kashmir’s fragile economy. The immediate effects were felt not only in the streets of Pahalgam but across the Valley’s entire tourism industry, which had been eagerly anticipating a successful summer season.

In the immediate aftermath, airlines scrambled to arrange emergency flights. Hotels and guesthouses, once fully booked for the summer season, now report mass cancellations. Tour operators, artisans, and transport workers, all reliant on the steady flow of visitors now face an uncertain future. The tragedy has cast a long shadow over what was shaping up to be a record-breaking tourism year, exposing once again how vulnerable local livelihoods remain to sudden shocks.

The economic shockwave didn’t remain confined to canceled hotel bookings. Demand-side effects rippled outwards. Consumption patterns among local vendors — from fruit sellers to souvenir artisans — were immediately affected. Restaurant owners, ponywallahs, guides, taxi drivers, and seasonal workers are seeing their seasonal earnings collapse before they even began. The multiplier effect, usually a textbook advantage of a flourishing tourism sector, now functions in reverse. A single shock has dismantled spending across the vertical.

Kashmir’s economy has long displayed features of seasonal elasticity, heavily influenced by peak tourist months. In this context, tourism operates not merely as an industry but as a transmission mechanism —........

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