For decades, Kashmir has been viewed as a region where the family remains central to cultural identity, social cohesion, and economic stability. However, data emerging from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) — in which I had the opportunity to contribute as a Research Officer, directly involved in field data Monitoring, verification, and household quality evaluation — has painted a surprisingly different picture. It is a picture that demands urgent attention from policymakers, community leaders, healthcare professionals, and society at large.

As someone who has worked across both urban and rural districts of Kashmir, I expected rural fertility to be significantly higher than urban fertility — especially in remote mountainous belts with traditional values. Yet, I was struck by how little difference remains. According to NFHS-5, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 1.2 in urban areas and 1.5 in rural areas, a sharp decline from NFHS-4’s figures of 1.4 and 2.0 respectively. More alarmingly, Kashmir’s overall fertility rate has dropped to just 1.4 — well below the replacement level of 2.1.

This silent demographic shift is not merely a statistical trend — it is a profound transformation in our society’s mindset about marriage, family, and the future.

What’s causing the Decline?

There are several causes of concern; however, the most significant ones that I identified during my survey are outlined below.

Delayed Marriages and the Pursuit of Stability

Recent global studies conducted by eminent scientists, experts, and researchers reveal that one of the most significant factors contributing to declining fertility rates is the increasing delay in marriage. This global pattern is also evident in Kashmir, where a growing number of young individuals are postponing marriage, often until their late 30s or even 40s, due to changing social, economic, and personal priorities. For instance, Kashmiri society now places strong emphasis on securing government employment, attaining higher........

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