By Riley Hill

A recent report presented to city council painted a bleak picture of what a long-feared megathrust earthquake—commonly known as the Big One—could do to Vancouver.

According to the study, once the shaking begins, more than 1,400 of the city’s buildings would sustain serious damage. If it occurred during working hours, 400 people would be expected to die or require intensive care. Hundreds of thousands more would be displaced from their homes and workplaces for at least 90 days, and property damage would total $3.8 billion.

While a megathrust earthquake along the Juan de Fuca fault line is (eventually) inevitable, this kind of disaster is not. Just look at what happened in Tokyo.

On March 11, 2011, the strongest earthquake ever recorded in Japan—a 9.0 megathrust—struck off the country’s northern east coast in the early afternoon. The shaking resembled what is expected for the western coasts of Vancouver Island, Washington, and Oregon: severe, prolonged, and followed by a devastating tsunami.

Far from the epicenter, Tokyo still experienced extended strong shaking. While we can’t predict the exact intensity a megathrust quake........

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