The southwest monsoon 2025 commenced its withdrawal by mid-September. It is time to evaluate its performance and look at harvest prospects of key crops. The good news is, as forecast by the IMD, the country has enjoyed above-normal rainfall. Between June 1 and September 27, the country received 922 mm of rainfall, 8 per cent above normal.

While east and northeast India (mainly Bihar and Assam) suffered a 19 per cent rainfall deficiency, the northwest parts (mainly Punjab and Rajasthan) had a 28 per cent surplus, central India 13 per cent and the southern peninsula 11 per cent.

While the total quantum of rainfall during the season is important, temporal and spatial distribution is critical for agriculture. From that perspective, August and September witnessed excessive precipitation in some parts of the country (Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan) that has reportedly inflicted crop damage.

Although reports of adverse impact on paddy and pulse crops are already in the public domain, assessment of the extent of damage is still going on. Anecdotal reports suggest, in addition to crop losses, excessive rains have impacted crop quality.

Here’s an assessment of the likely harvest size of key Kharif crops. Forecast production numbers are given in a range. The planted area is as of September 26.

RICE: The season’s production target set by the government is 123 million metric tonnes (MMT). The normal planted area (5-year average) is 40.3 million hectares (ml ha). This season, the planted area as of September 26 was 44.2 ml ha, slightly higher than last year’s 43.6 ml ha. The rice crop........

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